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Dawg Stats

A blog by Josh Hancher in Articles

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About this blog

A blog about the numbers and advanced statistics from College Football.  I will primarily look at this through the UGA prism but will cover a lot of teams.  Ask questions, bring your own research, join us as we learn and discuss the games.

Entries in this blog

Basketball

Hogs and Dawgs Basketball Preview

Arkansas is sneaky good.  I am sure that they won’t sneak on Coach Mike White.  The Razorbacks made it to the Elite 8 last season losing to Duke in Regional Semis.  While the AP doesn’t have them ranked, Ken Pomeroy’s metrics has them as the #16 team in college.  Arkansas beat Florida on Saturday and sits at 18-9 overall and an even 7-7 in SEC.  The NCAA SRS rating has them with 16.9 which is third best in league.  This will be another tough game.  This time the Dawgs will be challenged on
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Basketball

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Football

Fine... I'll do some football

After getting their "you know what" pushed in on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, even I needed statistical pallate cleanser.  I went back and pulled every individual game played by FBS teams from 2018 to 2022 (over 3,000).  Georgia's offense has been good quite good over the three offensive coordinators that called plays.  51 times offensive success rate ranked in the 50th percentile or better  of games.  Only 14 games fell under that percentile.  I'll show you some of these, but as you can imagine, som
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Football

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Basketball

Dawgs Demolished by Alabama 108-59

There isn't much to say.  Georgia wasn't able to compete on Saturday.  The Crimson Tide came out on fire hitting on 5 of their first 6 3 pointers and the only miss was a foul on Brandon Miler which he hit all three free throws.  Georgia had absolutely nothing working on defense or offense.  Alabama not only beat them by 49 points, but out rebounded them 49-26.  Brandon Miller had 21 points early and played sparingly after Alabama built the lead.  Led by Miller, Alabama had 5 players in double fi
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Josh Hancher in Basketball

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Baskeball

Dawgs Head to Tuscaloosa to Face One of Nation's Best Teams

Georgia travels to Tuscaloosa to face #1 Alabama.  The Tide will likely fall from that ranking ater they lost to Tennessee on Tuesday, their first SEC loss of the season.  Alabama is led by true freshman Brandon Miller (18.7 Pts, 8.2 Reb, 2.0 Ast) who is expected to be an NBA Lottery pick this summer.  Alabama leads the SEC in field goal shooting percentage at 46% and Miller leads the team hitting 62%.  Along with Miller, Alabama has 3 starters shooting more than 50% from the field. Mark Se
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Josh Hancher in Baskeball

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basketball

Georgia Gets a Two Point Win over LSU. Faces #1 Alabama Next

Georgia made it interesting but survived on Tuesday night to get a 65-63 win over LSU.  Georgia was shooting under 30% from the field and down by 2 at the half but ended up shooting 44% for the game despite getting just 28% of the 3’s to fall. Georgia was led by Braelen Bridges and Adur-Rahim who had 13 and 11 points.  Georgia had 9 players score and 6 score at least 6 points.  Lots of contributions and they needed them all to escape with a 2 point win.  Roberts who played 23 minutes on Sat
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Josh Hancher in basketball

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Basketball

Dawgs Defend Stegman versus an LSU Team Trending the Wrong Direction

Georgia and LSU are heading in opposite directions.  Both teams are ranked near bottom of SEC, but Georgia has edge over LSU in most key metrics.   Mike White’s squad shouldn’t take any team for granted, and this should be win for Georgia which they need staring down the guantlet of Alabama and Arkansas on the road and a tough Missouri team back at Stegman.   Terry Roberts played 23 minutes off the bench on Saturday and with him back in lineup, Georgia can be dangerous especially with Kario Oque
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Basketball

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Basketball

Dawgs Get a Big Win over Kentucky as Roberts returns and Oquendo scores 21

Georgia got it’s first big win in a month and getting home wins over UK in back to back seasons for the first time since 89-90.  Terry Roberts logged 23 minutes and scored 9 points to help Georgia off the bench.   Kario Oquendo now has back to back solid games scoring 21 after 19 on Tuesday.       Bridges and Hill joined Kario with Dawgs scoring double digit points. Braelen made so many big plays down the stretch to hold off Kentucky.   Georgia had a 10 point halftime lead that w
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Basketball

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Basketball

UGA v Hoops Preview + Bama and Auburn Face Off in SEC Game of the Day

Georgia hosts Kentucky at noon.  Wildcats are ranked just 40th in Ken Pomeroy and come in with a 16-8 overall and 7-4 in SEC.  Beating UGA won't bolster their bubble resume, but losing would put it on life support.  They are led by Oscar Tshiebwe (15.5 Pts, 13.3 Reb, 1.5 Ast) who torched the Bulldogs at Rupp for 37 points on 12 of 20 shooting.  Kentucky is shooting 47% on the season and 44% in league play which ranks second in SEC. Georgia has become reliant on the 3 shooting 147 over the l
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Josh Hancher in Basketball

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FTMF

AI May Take All Our Jobs, But This May Make it Worth it

Everyone has their text strings, work, church, kids’ sports, family, and most importantly, your Dawg text string.  Within each one there is a social structure, a hierarchy, an order, unwritten rules.  There is one who is the  glue who keeps it alive and not stale. The one who always who comments ensuring there are plenty of notifications waiting for you when you happen to be in  a meeting. There is the one who always gives a “ha ha” or “like” and of course the drunken one who will take it o
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Josh Hancher in FTMF

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Basketballl

Dawgs v Ole Miss Post Mortem

Dawgs let this win slip away.  At one point Georiga was shooting close to 50% from the field, but couldn’t get them to fall down the stretch a lose to Ole MIss 78-74. Georgia was just 3 of 16 from 3.  Braelen Bridges had a double-double and Kario Qquendo had his first good game in a month, but Coach Mike White said that despite those efforts the team had too many “my bad’s” on defense. Georgia doesn’t seem to have a plan B if the three’s don’t fall.  Georgia versus Texas A&M and Ol
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Josh Hancher in Basketballl

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basketball

Hoops Talk, Ole Miss Preview Stats (shhh.. some football stuff)

@Graham Coffeyand @Will Morrisonand I jumped into a Twitter Space show and talked some Hoops.  Stay to the end for some football talk Georgia’s season has had ups and downs.  Solid non con start, 11-1 home record, and upset of Auburn and road wins at Miss State and Ole Miss.  But, after some tough road games and a blowout loss without leading scorer Terry Roberts - Dawgs season is in a critical stretch with 3 straight home games. If they can win two of those and end the season with a w
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basketball

Dawgs Have No Answers for Roberts Absence

Georgia was sloppy to start the game, shooting just 24% in the first half.  They were behind by double digits for 30 of 40 minutes and never got closer than the 7-15 score with 12:36 left in 1st half. Justin Hill led the team with 20 points on 5 of 13 shooting. Abdur-Rahim continues to play hard and had 18 points on 6 of 11 shooting.  The rest of the team went just 6 for 24 from the field.  Oquendo played sparingly and had just 2 points in 12 minutes.  He went 0 for 5 from 3 and is just 2 f
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in basketball

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Basketball

Georgia Faces Texas A&M on Saturday. Two Teams Trending in Opposite Directions

Mike White's first season started off with promise with ten wins before New Years then a 3-1 start with an upset win over Auburn and road wins at Ole Miss and Mississippi State.  Since, Georgia is 1-4 and had blowout losses at Tennessee and Auburn.  Texas A&M has gotten off to a 7-2 SEC start and is 10-1 at home.  The Aggies have attempted the 3rd fewest 3 pointers SEC, but still are among one of the more efficient offenses in college averaging 109 points per 100 possessions and Ken Pomeroy'
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Josh Hancher in Basketball

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Basketball

Georgia heads to Auburn With Both Teams Needing a Win- @DawgStats

Auburn is safely in the NCAA field, but the Tigers seed might be trending in the wrong direction after back to back losses to Texas A&M (15-6, 7-1 in SEC) and West Virginia (13-9, 2- 7 in Big 12).  Auburn hung onto a AP rank after the WVU loss and is #25.  Currently Ken Pomeroy has the Tigers as his 30th ranked team.  So, suffice to say, Auburn needs this win. But so do the Bulldogs.  Georgia has played a fairly easy schedule thus far.  In fact, Georgia's strength of schedule is last in
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Basketball

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Basketball

Dawgs Even Record in SEC. Need a Stretch Run to Make Postseason

Through early January, Georgia basketball seemed to be trending up for the first time in a long time. The Dawgs started out 3-1 in SEC with an upset of Auburn at home and had a halftime lead in Rupp versus a struggling Kentucky team.  UK clamped down defensively and Georgia couldn't get the win.  Georgia went on to lose the nest 3 with a bad home loss to Vanderbilt allowing 85 points.  Georgia in SEC Play is shooting 39% and allowing 41%. Georgia got a must win last night in OT over a
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Basketball

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2023 Preseason

Way Too Early Returning Production List

Everyone is quick to get out their "way too early" lists, rankings, and teams to watch.  Well, this is my first off season post with returning production.  Here is what you will see Players who had at least 60 PFF Grade were in the 60+ Percentile For Each Position of and QB Pass Attempts RB Rush Attempts WR Targets OL Snaps Defensive Snaps This is all subject to change, but should be up to date with players in portal and players who have transferred to
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in 2023 Preseason

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Natty

Where does Monday's Game Rank?

My data set goes back to 2018 with every snap from every FBS team.  Here are the Georgia games over that span.  This chart is ranked by success rate, but each stat is ranked.  Monday's CFP Final was the 11th highest offensive success rate (59.7%), 6th best EPA (.586) , and 15th best YPP (8.2).  That is pretty good.   This success rate was actually bettered 3 times in 2022. That is pretty pretty good... Defensively, Georgia held TCU to 31.4% success rate (18th best), 3.5 YPP (14t
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Natty

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Natty

It's here... Game Day is here

This game is, statistically speaking, heavily favors Georgia.  Things that give one pause before making it a "lock"  Georgia's allowed the highest Passing Success Rate in last two games TCU has come back 6 times this season and is 2-1 outright as an underdog (actually were underdogs in Big 12 Championship Game) Georgia is less than 100% health (but so is TCU) Inner Munsons The opening line was Georgia -13.5 which was quickly bet to -12.5.  Since Saturday it has cr
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Natty

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Fiesta Bowl

How did TCU Win the Fiesta Bowl and Make the CFP Final? Stats and Video

TCU found itself in an uncomfortable position in the Fiesta Bowl... winning.  The Horned Frogs had to gut out holding onto a win as opposed to coming back from behind on Saturday night.  They did so capitalizing on most Michigan mistakes and finding their playmaker, Quentin Johnston (59 catches, 1,064 yards and 6 TDs for the season).  Johnston had 6 catches on 9 targets and 167 yards and a TD versus Michigan.  This game saw the most points scored in a CFP quarter and 10 plays over 30 yards.
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Fiesta Bowl

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Natty

CFP @DawgStats Data Dump

Gonna try and keep the posts coming, so this one will be short and sweet.  Just a lot of data on the two teams as we get into the analysis.  Please check out the trends from TCU that I posted yesterday if you missed it. QB Comparison       Rushing Stats Receiving Stats Defensive Players O Line Blocking 
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Josh Hancher in Natty

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Natty

TCU Trends

Everyone has noted the resilience of this TCU team.  And I don't want to discount it, but here is what resilience looks like statistically.  Since week 5, TCU has just a 40% offensive success rate and 6.0 YPP, and has trailed in every game except the Iowa State game and Fiesta Bowl.  This is 4% and and .5 yards below their season average on offense. Although, the Horned Frogs did run up a 50% offensive success rate and 7.0 yards per play and never trailed in the 51-45 win over Michigan in t
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Natty

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Peach Bowl

Defending Scoring Opportunities and Red Zone Defense

I mentioned in my prediction last night that both teams would move the ball between the 40's. Both Ohio State (5th P5 success rate allowed) and Georgia (2nd P5 success rate allowed) are really good defending scoring opportunities (ball inside opponents 40). But Georgia is elite when it comes to stopping drives and Defending Red zone. .     Of the 158 chances that the Buckeyes allowed a defense inside the 40 yard line 74 (47%) of those snaps are also in the Red Zone.  Geor
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Peach Bowl

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Peach Bowl

Peach Bowl Prep Final Chapter: Ohio State v Michigan. Stats, Metrics, and Video from "The Game"

Let's get right into it... As soon as the College Football Playoff Committee announced the matchup, I went to my handy dandy spreadsheet and made a matchup sheet which as @Jon Tweets Sportspointed out is "good on good."  Even though this a study of the OSU v Michigan game, I would like to frame this with what Georgia does on offense to shine a light on what I think might be the difference in the game. Georgia Offense v Ohio State Defense Georgia's offense ranks in top 10 several key me
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Josh Hancher in Peach Bowl

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Peach Bowl

Peach Bowl Prep Chapter 3: Maryland

Ohio State went on the road to College Park in their last game before what was presumably an undefeated matchup with arch rival Xichigan.  Maybe this was a trap game for the Buckeyes or maybe a sign of a really good team with flaws that were to be exposed in the stretch run.  Regardless, Maryland gave OSU a fight matching them in several metrics.  Again, the explosive plays and capitalizing on mistakes got the win.   I wrote about the "middle eight" in the forum, that stretch might have cost the
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Peach Bowl

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