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Dawg Stats

A blog by Josh Hancher in Articles

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About this blog

A blog about the numbers and advanced statistics from College Football.  I will primarily look at this through the UGA prism but will cover a lot of teams.  Ask questions, bring your own research, join us as we learn and discuss the games.

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Stats

Week 7 @DawgStats Data Dump

I think there are teams that separated themselves yesterday.   Washington, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, and sure Penn State (but it was Umass) There are teams that confirmed what they are USC, Tennessee, Alabama, Miami, Louisville (among others) Georgia is somewhere in between. Oregon, UNC, Utah will be a factor but not sure they are legit.  Who'd I miss? Iowa, Duke, Tenn, Iowa St, Bama, and ND all won yesterday all with success rates below 40% Oregon
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Stats

A better late than never @DawgStats week 7 preview

Been on a little trip to Florida with inlaws.  Got a few lines in the water and couple beers in the belly.  So, didn't get this out as early as I like to normally.  Here are the Power 5 Stats, graphs, and metrics.  First Up Offensive and Defensive EPA Plots.   Notes: 6 Teams have an offensive success rate 50%+ and defensive success rate sub 35% Clemson 50%/34.8%  Louisville 50%/35.1%  Miami 51%/33.0%  Michigan 53% /31.6% Oregon 57%/34.9%  Georgia 53%/34.5% Other Und
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stats

Week 5 @DawgStats Recap

The full data guide is in the forum.  Gonna drop the weekly stats and metrics here.  you can see some of the box scores and brief takes in my twitter feed:    
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Stats

@DawgStats Weekend Previews

The members have access to the entire season of data, box scores, and previews.  Too large to put into the blog.  Gonna put the SEC games and tonight's for you guys.  Be sure to check the show we did yesterday.  We use these graphics and go over a lot of these games My quick takes Utah offense is... terrible. Living on a few big plays and outstanding defense.  Gimmie the Beavers 24-10 Florida's defense is really good.  They are holding it down while offense figures it
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Stats

Week 4 @DawgStats Data Viz and Week 5 Preview

Chart 1:  Success Rate/Points  Week 4 is in the book, and schedules will almost be exclusively be conference games.  That doesn't mean there aren't mismatches ahead, but success rates are going to tighten up. The average winning team is posting a 48% success rate and losing team has moved up to 37%.  After week one, those were 51%/35%.   The three year FBS average is 47%/42%.   Penn State stuck Iowa down there on the 18% success rate/0 points scored.  That was the lowest success rate of any
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stats

Week 4 @DawgStats Preview

Some really great games and matchups.  Look at how so many teams are matched up this week.  Particularly ND v OSU.  On paper, the Irish look ready for the upset.  This game should be great.  UCLA v Utah, Wazzu and Oregon State.   In the SEC, the Bama v Ole Miss, similar to OSU ND,  The Rebs look poised for the upset.  Who Can get it done? In thanks for getting me to 6K followers, one more free PDF.  I am on a fishing trip and cut back to the Power 5 games.  If you want a matchup that I
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Stats

@DawgStats National Metrics and Week 3 Box Scores

We are just under a quarter into the season. Things will still shift as we track the stats, but it is clear that the Pac 12 is delivering on the preseason expectations with elite offenses at USC, Washington, and Oregon all led by veteran play callers. And the tier behind them of UCLA, Wazzu, Oregon State, and Arizona would be in the top tier in every conference in offensive success rate/EPA.  The Pac 12 is putting of solid defensive numbers, but game state of absolutely curb stomping teams is a
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@DawgStats Week 3 Metrics Previews for Power 5 Games

Ok fam, here is this week's previews.  A bunch of out of conference games, and really a couple of interesting ones.  Got ''em in early for you picks, pools, and bets.  Thanks for checking it out.  Look for the handy dandy PDF in the forum  
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stats

Week 2 Stats, Metrics, and Box Score - @DawgStats

Week 2 is in the books.  We had some Power 5 action, and stats are shaping into an expected trajectory.  But, some teams are newcomers to the quality teams metrics.  These graphs start with at the weekly Points Scored + Success Rate graph which shows us winning teams have averaged 49% success rate and 39 points per game, and the losing teams 33% and 15 points.  This is by game and what teams average so far follows and had offense and defensive splits and broken down by conference.  Also, there a
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stats

DawgStats: UT Martin

This game, and specifically the low energy and offensive output had Georgia fans in the stands on social media quite concerned.  But, if we needed another reminder of how good things are - Georgia won 48-7. Georgia wound up with a 47% success rate on offense, and holding UT Martin to 31%. Everything was "ok".  Dawgs rushed  for 5.5 YPC and 48% success rate and had a nice 10.4 YPA and 46% pass success rate. Georgia had just 4% explosive run percentage (rushes over 12 yards). And one of those
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box score

Weekend Advance Box Scores

Just gonna drop the data viz here from the weekend games.  As more info comes in, I'll be adding rankings for stats for context.  Hop this format gives you what you need .
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ACC

@DawgStats ACC Rundown

Clemson and FSU are the only teams with CFP Championship odds which aren’t considered long shots. Both teams have win totals of 10, (Clemson’s opened at 9.5) and both have + odds to win ACC with Clemson ($145/40% implied) a slight edge over FSU (+$180/36% implied).   FSU (+2.2) and Syracuse (+1.1)  were  the only teams over 1.0 Net Yards Per Play, and the Seminoles saw their offensive success rate jump from 41% in 2021 to near elite at 48% in 2022.  FSU is on a lot of people’s of teams to m
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stats

Big 12 Preview

I have been working all summer keeping the CFP Stat Preview up to date and also adding some info.  Last week I laid out a statistical resume for some of CFP contenders.  Wanted to show the Big 12 teams with that info and highlight some the info from the Big 12 preview.  @Graham Coffey has asked me to do some conference previews and the Big 12 is up next. Let look at the Big 12 Teams: Vegas Odds Implied Odds Three Year Tracking: Net YPP Offense Success
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Statistical Resumes for CFP Teams

I throw a lot of numbers around, and I love dissecting this sport through the stats.  But I am very reluctant use them as predictive... past results do not guarantee future results.  That said, we can look at the statistical footprint of CFP teams and see what they look like and maybe see teams who might have the trajectory of a playoff contender. Net Yards Per Play (offensive yards per play  minus defensive yards per play) is a pretty solid indicator of a team’s overall efficiency, and it
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Basketball

More NCAA @DawgStats... Path to Sweet 16. Implied Odds for Region

Ok, one more data dump for you guys.  I took each sectional and grouped them so you can see path for every team faces to make Sweet 16.  Along with season stats and metrics, I took (where available) first round implied odds based on money line (these are from Vegas Insider "best odds" so they come from different books and may not add up to 100% in some cases).  Also, used Circa Sports odds to make implied odds to make Final Four and Championship.  Gonna make this into a twitter poll, so check it
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Basketball

Dawgs open with LSU in SEC Tournament

Georgia has had a brutal stretch of games to end the regular season, but get a chance to notch a win with a beatable LSU team.  The Tigers, while they were the last win for UGA... in OT... at home, have actually won a game since the Bulldogs have won.  Neither team has played well in the last two weeks.  Georgia has reverted to bad shots on bad possession and has seen Abdur-Rahim who was once one of the best 3 Point shooting players in SEC disappear.  The catch shoot 6th man may have been figure
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Basketball

Georgia needs more than a good game.. they need a bad one from Florida

After another blowout loss, this time on senior day, Georgia has decide to pack it in and play some younger players or give the veterans a chance to beat Mike White's old team.  I expect the latter.  Jaxon Etter got the start on Senior Day and played 18 minutes, but wasn't much help on either side of the ball.  Kario Oquendo had 13 points off the bench in first half but also faded in second half.  Missouri had 5 guys in double figures and Kobe Brown wasn't one of them.   UGA is at or n
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Basketball

Missouri takes control in second half and Georgia takes another beating.

Georgia shot over 50% from the field and 70% from 3 in the first half and found themselves with just a 41-40 lead.  You don’t have to watch a lot of Georgia hoops to know that wasn’t sustainable for the second half.  Kario Oqeundo scored just 1 point in the second, and Abdur-Rahim ended with just two points and was 0-5 from the field.  Both players came off the bench for Coach Mike White allowing Jaxon Etter extensive time on the floor to score 4 points on 1-4 shooting. While Dawgs held Kob
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Basketball

Missouri comes to town with a NCAA bid on the line

Georgia will again have to defend (and defend better) a team that will challenge the defense inside.  Missouri shoots 50% inside the arc.  When Georgia holds team below their shooting % they win..  When they don’t, the lose.  Some of that is luck and some is defense.  Georgia has to be better defensively. Kobe Brown is a having a great season.  His scoring is up in league play averaging almost 18 PPG and 53% FG with a three point shooting percentage of 47%... he is licking his chops versus
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Basketball

Dawgs head home to lick wounds from wicked road trip

Dawgs don’t put up much of a fight.  Dawgs blow out again on Tuesday.  Arkansas quickly ran up a double digit lead.  The Hogs improved their leage best shooting percentage while putting up a 64% last night.  Dawgs head home with a game with the Gators.  This is a chance to get a win for the home team,  but Georgia just has to play better. 
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