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Dawg Stats

A blog by Josh Hancher in Articles

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About this blog

A blog about the numbers and advanced statistics from College Football.  I will primarily look at this through the UGA prism but will cover a lot of teams.  Ask questions, bring your own research, join us as we learn and discuss the games.

Entries in this blog

Ask Dawgs Central

Live recruiting intel drops and player news from "Ask Dawgs Central"

We had nearly a full house of Dawgs Central last night on "Ask Dawg Central"  @Jason Brassell gave us the next three potential commits,  @Graham Coffeyfilled us in on the latest news, @Jon Tweets Sports and @Lovelacejumped in to the conversation, too.   Please subscribe to our YouTube Channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get you podcasts.   And take a minute to leave a review as it will help us spread the word about Dawgs Central and grow our community.
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Ask Dawgs Central

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Stats

Dawgs Central B1G Preview

@Jon Tweets Sports, @Graham Coffeyand I went through the B1G and while we are in agreement that Ohio State is the clear favorite and likely winner, we diverged a bit from there.  Graham is very high on a Michigan team returning a solid passing attack and enough defense to make a run to Indy. Check it out on Twitter or on YouTube         Ohio State Wisconsin Michigan Iowa Nebraska  
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

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stats

Meet Your Twitter Friends: Kelley Ford

Kelley Ford of KFordRatings.com was nice enough to join me to break down his preseason rankings and shared with us what goes into his predictive numbers.  Check it out on Pod or our YouTube Channel          
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

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stats

3 Year Trends of Offensive and Defensive Success Rate

Exciting title, right?  I have made a couple of graphs.  These are the percentage of games where a team's offense beat their opponents defensive success rate allowed.  Alabama is obviously on a 3 year heater with just a few games where the offensive success rate didn't exceed what their opponents were allowing to opposing offenses.  I was a little surprised to see Georgia's as mediocre as it was.  Once I saw the 2020 figure of just 40% of games, I realized that Georgia only had a 44% offensive s
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

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Stats

Advanced Metrics and Actual Points

If you are reading this, then I know that at the very least you have a basic understanding of the analytics and metrics we discuss on the show and on this blog.   Success rate is percentage of plays which gain a certain number of yards based on down and distance.  50% of yards to gain on 1st down. 70% on 2nd down, and 100% of yards gained on 3rd and 4th downs.  Offense wants a high percentage and Defense wants a low percentage.  It is binary and does't offer any context.  A contextualized m
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

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Test

Priors Matter

As soon as the game clock in the Football Playoff Final hits 00:00, there is a "Way Too Early" ranking available from damn every outlet.  Those rankings are based on that season and looking ahead to what each team might carry over into the next season.  Bettors certainly factor previous seasons into their "priors" and some models factor multiple seasons into their attempts to predict who might win a game or, more importantly, cover a spread. We are inside 50 days until we get to watch the 2
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Test

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Season Previews

Pac 12 Season Preview

Check out the latest show from Dawgs Central.  This blog has been updated with all our show graphics for you to take a closer look.  Thanks for checking this out and sharing on social media         SC is the betting favorite to win the league, with UCLA and Oregon all competing to upset the Trojans.  Lincoln Riley loaded up on offensive players from not only Oklahoma, but raided Oregon and Stanford and the best receiver in the college from Pitt with Jordan Addision
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Season Previews

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Game Tape

Top Play Calls from 2021

If you have followed me for any length of time, you know that I comb many places for data and info to share with you guys.  At the top of my list of critical sources of info is SEC Stat Cat.  Clark Brooks charts every offensive play for every SEC Team, and I add it to my data to sort and show you guys another level of plays.  Graham does a fantastic job of taking the video and breaking it down.  Following both of these guys and the breakdowns they share will make you a smart Bulldog fan for sure
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Game Tape

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Stats

Closing Line Value?

Opening and Closing Lines for all (most?) from the 2021 Season.  Look back and see some of the games with the biggest line movements.  The biggest was the Tulane OU game which moved to Norman. Knowing your stuff and getting down early might make the difference between a winning and losing week, season, career :) Home Score Away Score Close Open formattedSpread CL Winner Winning Margin Oklahoma 40 Tulane 35 -31.5 -22 Oklahoma -31.5 9.5 Oklahoma 5
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

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stats

A Statistical Overview of Teams in Playoff Era

I know that some of you guys who have followed my stats know more or less what metrics I use to breakdown teams.  As I go through my stats and clean them up to be ready for the 2022 season, I made this graph for us.     These are the  teams who finished with at least a 70% win percentage and their statistical profile.  I will add some more charts and data in the comments and even the data set if you want to see all the stats from all teams in 2016-2021
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

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stats

Top 10 Defensive EPA Plays

Ok... I am just hanging watching a Boston Butt creep up to 203F to take to the golf course for a long overdue round, and I got to thinking about sharing some defensive efficiency plays.  If you missed the EPA explanation check it out as I ran through what EPA means for offensive efficiency.  But, it is used to describe defensive efficiency as well.  Dawgs were just behind Wisconsin last season in EPA allowed per play...  but that is hardly a fair comparison.  Georgia faced Alabama twice, Tenness
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

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stats

Rushing Efficiency Under Kirby Smart

Georgia fans take pride and claim Bulldogs are RBU.  It's hard to argue that it is not considering how many NFL backs have played in Athens.  There is also a significant crowd that wants to see an modern more open offense and expected that with the hiring of Todd Monken.  The evolution of offensive play calling under smart from Jim Cheney to James Coley and now Todd Monken is not hard to spot, but the running game is and will always be a significant part of the playbook.  Don't look for the 30/7
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

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Stats

What the Hell is EPA?

There are so many stats across all the sports that represent advance stats or analytics.  Some  more obtuse than others.  I have always contended that advance stats are no different than the "eye test" in terms of judging or grading a football play or an entire  game.  The advance metrics are just putting a number on "explosive" offense or "stout" defense.   EPA is one of the stats which we will reference a lot on this site as we break down not only the X and O's of the game, but add to the
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

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stats

Georgia Returning Secondary and Opponent's Returning Receivers

Hopefully you been following my breakdowns of the returning production for this season.  My hope that I have provided some context what returning production looks like at the player level.  Considering that Georgia is 120th returning defensive production and that passes defended carries the most weight in Bill Connelly's analysis, let's look at the secondary and the pass catchers they'll face.  I am focusing on just the FBS teams... and Tech.  Georgia doesn't face an offense who ranked in top 50
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

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Dawg Stats

Defensive Metrics and Returning Production on CFP Teams

Hope you got to see my initial post on returning production.  I think that it is hard to make a case that a high percentage of returning production will make a championship quality team. Look at this.  14 Teams since 2017 have increased win percentage by 50%+ and 22 have decreased their winning percentage.  Here what those two groups returned from the previous season. As you can see, it is hard to draw a direct correlation from returning production to improved or declining winnin
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Dawg Stats

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Dawg Stats

Tracking Offensive Returning Production through the Playoff Era

"Returning Production" is a phrase that we all hear in the offseason.  Bill Connelly publishes and weights his returning production metrics.  You can read his current projections on ESPN.com and previous seasons on SBNation Football Study Hall.  To summarize, not all returning production is the same.  Offensive Line and Running back production is mostly replaceable and Passing and Receiving production is less replaceable.  Defensively, passes defended are harder to replace than TFLs.  So with th
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Dawg Stats

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