We are just under a quarter into the season. Things will still shift as we track the stats, but it is clear that the Pac 12 is delivering on the preseason expectations with elite offenses at USC, Washington, and Oregon all led by veteran play callers. And the tier behind them of UCLA, Wazzu, Oregon State, and Arizona would be in the top tier in every conference in offensive success rate/EPA.  The Pac 12 is putting of solid defensive numbers, but game state of absolutely curb stomping teams is a factor.  All eyes will be on the Colorado and Oregon game.  Colorado has been electric, but their stats profile says “pretty ok” more than “we are coming.”

The Big 12 might run through Norman as much as it does Austin. Oklahoma is 2nd in offensive success rate and 3rd in offensive EPA.  Texas is absolutely average offensively and much better than in recent years defensively, they will need to improve on offense to beat Oklahoma. Kansas allowed 24 to Nevada and only scoring 31 tells me they are fun, but not serious.

SEC, Ole Miss looks to be the most complete team.  The Rebels and LSU are probably the only elite offenses thus far, and we will see what that offense can do to a team in Tuscaloosa that held the Bulls of South Florida to 24% offensive success rate and 3 points (sarcasm font not available in HTML).  Georgia at this point leads the second-tier offenses of the SEC along with UF, UT, Auburn, and A&M.  In the all important “who scored more points, nerd?” metrics, Georgia and Auburn are the only teams without a loss.  Auburn goes to A&M in another SEC matchup to see who is real and who is maybe just OK.

Only Vandy, USC, and Mississippi State are allowing opposing offense >40% offensive success rate this year.  And surprise,  they are a combined 5-5 with SEC with very unimpressive wins and bad losses.  

ACC is still a two horse race, but Miami has given reason to be optimistic about a run.  They are at the top and have an elite offensive metrics profile along with Notre Dame and Louisville.  The Cardinals don’t face Clemson or FSU, keep an eye on them.  Clemson’s offense is efficient but isn’t explosive.  They are 8th nationally in success rate, but 64th in EPA.  FSU needs to improve in offensive efficiency (45% success rate – 52nd) to not be susceptible to an upset.  

I am going to drop the full guide in the blog free this week (Free Download), but considering doing the Dawgs Central Community to get more of my PDFs and Stats. Thanks, enjoy, follow, share....  Go Dawgs!!! 

@dawgstats Week 3 Stats.pdf