Clemson and FSU are the only teams with CFP Championship odds which aren’t considered long shots. Both teams have win totals of 10, (Clemson’s opened at 9.5) and both have + odds to win ACC with Clemson ($145/40% implied) a slight edge over FSU (+$180/36% implied).  

FSU (+2.2) and Syracuse (+1.1)  were  the only teams over 1.0 Net Yards Per Play, and the Seminoles saw their offensive success rate jump from 41% in 2021 to near elite at 48% in 2022.  FSU is on a lot of people’s of teams to make the CFP returning start QB Jordan Travis and 80% of the offense according to Bill Connelly. Don’t sleep on that defense.  FSU brings back 94% of a good defense which if can improve on run defense, could make a run at the CFP

But, Vegas still thinks the ACC title goes through Death Valley.  Clemson returns 64% of the offense which one expects to improve with Cade Klubnik’s second season for the Tigers. Clemson had very average 45% success rate in 2022, but with any improvement passing the ball (41% pass success rate in 2022) paired with Will Shipley and the Clemson groung game’s 49% rush success rate – they should be much improved offensively.

Defensively, they will need to replace snaps in the defensive front.  They return 75% of the defense and are only one of 8 teams who return 8 players with 100+ snaps and PFF Grades of 70+.  They were third in the ACC with a 38% success rate allowed.  Even in the losses to USC and Tennessee to end the year, the defense held them to 31% and 37% success rates.  Just that the offense was so bad (32% v USC and 42% to UT)

Teams who may compete for the ACC certainly include UNC with a day 1 NFL Draft prospect Drake Maye, but he doesn’t play defense.  The Tarheels (+$10,000/1.0%) allowed 51% success rate to opposing offenses in 2022.  Miami (+$15,000/0.7%) is always talked as a contender despite coming up short and looking bad doing it.  Louisville (+$20,000/0.5%) has an extremely favorable schedule facing only Notre Dame with a win total over 7.5 wins.  9 of Louisville’s opponents have win totals of 6.5 or less

Ok, here comes the graph.  Looking forward to running through the ACC with @Graham Coffey on the next show.  All the graphics are available to DC members at a discount over at my store.