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@DawgStats ACC Rundown

Josh Hancher

Clemson and FSU are the only teams with CFP Championship odds which aren’t considered long shots. Both teams have win totals of 10, (Clemson’s opened at 9.5) and both have + odds to win ACC with Clemson ($145/40% implied) a slight edge over FSU (+$180/36% implied).  

FSU (+2.2) and Syracuse (+1.1)  were  the only teams over 1.0 Net Yards Per Play, and the Seminoles saw their offensive success rate jump from 41% in 2021 to near elite at 48% in 2022.  FSU is on a lot of people’s of teams to make the CFP returning start QB Jordan Travis and 80% of the offense according to Bill Connelly. Don’t sleep on that defense.  FSU brings back 94% of a good defense which if can improve on run defense, could make a run at the CFP

But, Vegas still thinks the ACC title goes through Death Valley.  Clemson returns 64% of the offense which one expects to improve with Cade Klubnik’s second season for the Tigers. Clemson had very average 45% success rate in 2022, but with any improvement passing the ball (41% pass success rate in 2022) paired with Will Shipley and the Clemson groung game’s 49% rush success rate – they should be much improved offensively.

Defensively, they will need to replace snaps in the defensive front.  They return 75% of the defense and are only one of 8 teams who return 8 players with 100+ snaps and PFF Grades of 70+.  They were third in the ACC with a 38% success rate allowed.  Even in the losses to USC and Tennessee to end the year, the defense held them to 31% and 37% success rates.  Just that the offense was so bad (32% v USC and 42% to UT)

Teams who may compete for the ACC certainly include UNC with a day 1 NFL Draft prospect Drake Maye, but he doesn’t play defense.  The Tarheels (+$10,000/1.0%) allowed 51% success rate to opposing offenses in 2022.  Miami (+$15,000/0.7%) is always talked as a contender despite coming up short and looking bad doing it.  Louisville (+$20,000/0.5%) has an extremely favorable schedule facing only Notre Dame with a win total over 7.5 wins.  9 of Louisville’s opponents have win totals of 6.5 or less

Ok, here comes the graph.  Looking forward to running through the ACC with @Graham Coffey on the next show.  All the graphics are available to DC members at a discount over at my store.

00019 CFB Guide ACC.jpg00020 CFB Guide ACC.jpg00021 CFB Guide ACC.jpgACC Tracking.jpgACC Tracking2.jpgACC Tracking3.jpg

00024 CFB Guide ACC.jpgACC Sched.jpgACC Sched2.jpgACC Sched3.jpgACC Sched4.jpgACC Sched5.jpgACC Sched6.jpgACC Sched7.jpg


Edited by Josh Hancher

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