Jump to content

Dawg Stats

A blog by Josh Hancher in Articles

  • entries
    108
  • comments
    29
  • views
    34,669

About this blog

A blog about the numbers and advanced statistics from College Football.  I will primarily look at this through the UGA prism but will cover a lot of teams.  Ask questions, bring your own research, join us as we learn and discuss the games.

Entries in this blog

Peach Bowl

Peach Bowl Prep Chapter 2: Penn State

Welcome to the second installment of Peach Bowl Prep.  My previous post covered the OSU v Notre Dame and gave the metrics from the next two Buckeye opponents .  Ohio State played 3 of the next four Big Ten Opponents at the shoe and rolled all them.  Through 7 games, they outscored opponents 347-104, and had tallied 29 passing TDs and added 17 rushing.  The OSU offense ranked 2nd in Power 5 offensive success rate and 1st in offensive yards per play.  Defensively, OSU allowed 4.6 YPP and 31% defen
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Peach Bowl

0
Peach Bowl

Peach Bowl Prep: Buckeyes v ND

The regular season is truly over with the Heisman Ceremony and Army/Navy game played.  It's onto the Bowl Season.  Some of you may have been able to watch Ohio State games, but some of us were able to only get the highlights and narrative from our Peach Bowl opponents. @Jon Tweets Sportsand @Graham Coffeywill have several shows and article to get you ready and here a statistical breakdown of their matchup with Notre Dame from week 1. This game was the #1 game the opening weekend with the #5
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Peach Bowl

0
Stats

Metrics from SECCG and Season Stats Recap

Georgia checked some boxes for me and probably some of you, too.  Georgia scored 50 on a good team and did it in a big game.  Yes, on a day when the defense was average allowed 7.6 YPP, 46% success rate, and 30 points - Georgia's offense could in fact outscore someone and won an SEC Championship on Saturday.   Bennett was 23 of 29 for 274 with 4 TDs and a 63% Pass Success Rate and 9.3 YPA.  LSU's offense had success, but couldn't keep up.  The Tigers' 45% success rate was the third highest allow
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Tech Preview

Is Georgia Tech not... terrible?

Georgia Tech had a preseason win total of 3.5 wins and still seemed to climbing uphill in year 4 of Geoff Collins' rebuild after years of Triple Option personnel.   Tech was uncompetitive and had just one win over Western Carolina when UCF took Tech to the woodshed and the 27-10 loss ended the Collins era. Brent Key took over as interim and has gone 4-3 with an upset of UNC and can get the Jackets to a bowl with an upset Saturday.  The season stats matchup make that look more daunting. (Che
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Tech Preview

0
Stats

Metrics from the Ugly win at Lexington

I did NOT see this coming.  The good news is that Georgia went on road in back to back weeks playing quality defenses and completed back to back SEC Seasons undefeated and as @Graham Coffeypointed out, that doesn't happen often.  Georgia was able to rack up points in Starkville, but not last night getting out of town with a 16-6 win.  The offense did eek out 50% success rate, and Bennett only threw the ball 19 times. The longest gain of the night was a 35 yard pass to Blaylock - which you
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Stats and Highlights

Monken is Gonna Monken

@Graham Coffeywrote about the run game in his 12 Takeaways yesterday.  And, I don't know what else to add, but I am sure that he and @Jon Tweets Sportswill have a breakdown on that aspect of the Georgia offense versus Mississippi State. But, while it is worthing recognizing that the MSU did absolutely sold out on the run, Georgia did score 38 non-garbage time points and saw key plays made by Jackson, Washington, Bowers, and McConkey.  Here is the offensive output from Saturday: Ok
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats and Highlights

0
National Stats

Updated National Metrics and Ranks

Hard to argue with the statistical resume that Michigan and Ohio State isn't the game of the year.   Both teams in top 5 of all metrics and only Michigan's offensive yards per play isn't close to being national leader.   Dawgs played sloppy game, but still near top of most categories.   Curious to what the CFP shake up will be.  Tennessee will remain in the catbird seat for the 4th spot.  USC 6th?  Will Clemson jump Bama? My Top 10 Georgia Ohio State Michigan TCU
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in National Stats

0
Mississippi State

Miss State Stats Quick Hitter

I dropped a stats overview of the upcoming matchup in the forum and on the Twitter.  Did some more numbers looking at the game and here is some deeper dives.   I was not watching the State and Auburn game and glad I didn't.  And I will not be pulling plays for @Jon Tweets Sports and @Graham Coffey.   Not sure anyone wants to look at two offense who both went under 40% success rate and not sure of it's value.  Working on the State games versus UK and Texas A&M. Mississippi Sta
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Mississippi State

2
stats

Updated National Data... Dawgs slip to #2 in Offensive Success Rate.

I was not surprised to see Georgia fall from the top rated Offensive Success Rate rank, but I was surprised to see by whom. Here are the Update Numbers Sorted By Wins then Offensive Yards Per Play with Power 5 Ranks   Here are the Update Numbers Sorted By Wins then Defensive Yards Per Play with Power 5 Ranks   Here is a file which I normally share on the forum and the paid members, but I'll share with you guys so you see what we do on
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

0
stats

Dawgs Bury Vols with Early Dominance

Georgia sent a message to college football that the title will run through Athens as Bulldogs jumped on the #1 Volunteers with big plays in first half and 60 minutes of crushing defense.  Tennessee was the leading scoring team in college football averaging almost 50 points a game.  Georgia held them to 3.9 yards per play, 13 points, and 37% offensive success rate.  Seems good. Georgia's offense was humming in the first half.  Monken schemed several big plays and averaged 8.3 Yards and 54%
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

0
Stats

Stats Recap from Saturday

Georgia got a convincing win over Florida on Saturday.  A game where the offense were good both running and passing the ball averaging 7.1 yards per play.  Georgia ran out to 28-3 lead on the heels of 7.4 average while holding Florida to 3.1 yards per play in the second half.  The game was in doubt only for short stretch in the third quarter after Florida cut it 28-20 with a 78 TD from Richardson to Henderson after an interception by Bennett.  The offense  responded with two scoring drives, one
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Stats

Where The Dawgs Stand

Georgia comes out of the bye week with some good news from the injury room, but far from 100%.  The team is staring down a backloaded schedule with bitter rival Florida, a potential  home game of the century against Tennessee, and dangerous road games versus Kentucky and Mississippi State.  No one expected that the Georgia defense wouldn't regress, in fact, I mentioned specifically a yards per play allowed of 4.5 would be an indicator that this defense would be elite in respect to other FBS team
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Stats

Dawgs Mess Around and Vandy Finds Out

Georgia routed Vanderbilt and wasted little effort in doing so.  Georgia ran 25 snaps in the red zone, and held the Commodores to 9 snaps in Georgia territory.  Georgia averaged 7.3 yards per play offensively and held Vandy to just 3.0 per play.   Just a total mismatch on Saturday.  And there is a lot to celebrate as the team heads into the bye week.  Arik Gilbert had his first TD catch as Bulldog, and Dominick Blaylock had a touchdown for the first time since 2019  
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Bama Games

Dawg Stats is throwing out some Bama and Vols Stats

UT Pass Defense Three stats that interest me in the Bama UT Game Tennessee's defense is good not great.  39% success rate allowed and really not good defensive pass play success rate allowed of 43.2%.  This did not slip past @Graham Coffey   Do we really think that UT is that bad?  Let’s see if we can make sense of that. Tennessee v Power 5 Teams Yeah 3-0, and their best pass defense was against Pitt which was the one game they probably didn’t deserve to win.  And
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Bama Games

0
Stats

Dawgs Stats: Mid Season Report Card

Last year, I wrote and talked about my concerns about the offense.  I wasn't sure that if Bennett was the guy who could put up the offensive numbers needed to beat Bama.  Well, let's just say that I am happy I was wrong.  Loud wrong. My concerns were around the offensive explosiveness and the overall efficiency.  Georgia's defense was allowing less than a touchdown per game through the first six games.  I just didn't think that was sustainable.   While that stat did regress (Georgia allowed 10.2
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Stats

Georgia, far from perfect, still dominant over Auburn.

Georgia's offense was not a as electric as fans have grown accustomed. Although, the running game picked up where it left it after the Missouri game.  Georgia ran it 39 times for 7.9 per attempt.  59% success rate and .516 EPA was more than enough to get it done while the pass offense was, well, not good. 5.6 yards per attempt on 33 attempts and 42% succes rate.  As "meh" as the pas offense was, in addition to the rush offense, the defense swarmed and harassed Auburn's young QB allowing just 21%
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Stats

Dawg Stats is Thinking About the Defenses

When the line posted on Sunday from the Circa Sports Twitter Account, it was an eyebrow raiser.  Georgia opened as a 28 point favorite with a total at 47.5 implying a 37-9 win.. Interesting numnbers considering that the Auburn defense has been improving each week and the Georgia offense has been sputtering.  I love seeing Jack Pod getting Co-SEC Player of the Week honors, but do not love seeing our kicker leading the SEC in points.   Even more interesting is that the line has move to Georg
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Stats recap

Missouri Quick Stats

I'll do a full break down... but the Georgia run game averaged 5.1 ypa but .364 EPA and 53% success rate is how Georgia won the game.  It wasn't pretty, but the Dawgs got it done on the road.  Nothing is a given. Georgia orchestrated a win after being down 10 at halftime.  This win could be a harbinger of an incomplete team or it could be a win that Georgia rallies around...  TBD.   Either way.  I absolutely loved watching the Dawgs fight through it. The defense held Missouri to 2
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats recap

1
running stats

Rushing Explosiveness

I wanted to come up with a witty headline, but decided on less is more.... which is what UGA rushing might have become. Well, lookie there.... I showed a little wit.   It's a dad joke wrapped in college football analysis disguised as a pun.  I got the inspiration to dig into these numbers after listening to John and Jim on the Missouri Preview episode of "May God A Podcast".  The guys just felt that the running game stats and what we see on the field don't match.  I actually kinda think the same
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in running stats

1
stats

Stats Recap: Kent State, National, and SEC Metrics and Stats

Georgia fans were underwhelmed with the win over Kent State on Saturday.  Looking at the numbers can point to the areas of concern.  Georgia allowed 47% success rate on defense, the first points allowed in the first quarter, several long drives, plus a long touchdown.  Offensively, they didn't seem to in sync either.  Several Drops, muffed punt and fumble from a reliable McConkey.  Georgia didn't capitalize on several drive settling for field goals.   Let's talk about the run game.  Georgia
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in stats

0
Picks

Dropping some Friday Morning Stats:

Over in the forum, I put some statistical matchups and some player matchups that might help you set some lineups or pickem' contests.  Here are my picks for the weekend.  For the Prize Picks (code DAWGSCENTRAL)-  I used the matchups with high volume guys facing some sub 60's PFF defenses.  Been burned from volume in FBS v FCS teams so I steered away from those.   For the college sides, I've used a net ypp advantage to decide the better team and then used points per successful play (offensive suc
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Picks

2
Running Stats

Run the Damn Statistics

When you write about the number one team in the country, it's hard not to just spread good news.  I have written and talked about how ridiculously efficient this offense is.  And, I have had genuine concerns about the offense in the past. I have zero now.  I am not even remotely concerned about the running game.  I am a stat nerd and love that we pass at a higher rate.  I don't know if that is because some of the passes are effectively runs, or that Monken and Bennett are taking what the defense
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Running Stats

1
Stats

Dawg Stats Recap as Dawgs Roll in Columbia

Once again, Dawgs dominate on both sides of the ball in a 48-7 win on Saturday. First up the offense, 8.7 YPP and 73% offensive success rate which betters the 67% clip versus Oregon.  The 73% is second best this century against Power 5 opponents (2015 v USC), add in 8.7 yards per play and .571 EPA   makes this offense lethal. Defensively, 31% success rate allowed was 10% lower than USC's season average.  Dawgs allowed 4.8 YPP and a negative EPA allowed.  This Defense is growing up and growing up
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Stats

0
Gamecocks

Dawgs and Gamecocks Film Analysis and Statistical Breakdowns

@Graham Coffey and I broke down the game with South Carolina.  All indications and our score predictions point towards a mismatch. Graham put in a lot time looking at SC's first two opponents and what I think he pointed to and what I saw was a erratic offense that - talent wise might be a 'buy low' but results are pretty bad. An offensive success rate of just over 40% is bad... like real bad. 88th in FBS and 12th in SEC bad.  That success rate leads an offense to pass for necess
Josh Hancher

Josh Hancher in Gamecocks

0
×
×
  • Create New...