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Dawgs Stats: Mid Season Report Card


Josh Hancher
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Last year, I wrote and talked about my concerns about the offense.  I wasn't sure that if Bennett was the guy who could put up the offensive numbers needed to beat Bama.  Well, let's just say that I am happy I was wrong.  Loud wrong. My concerns were around the offensive explosiveness and the overall efficiency.  Georgia's defense was allowing less than a touchdown per game through the first six games.  I just didn't think that was sustainable.   While that stat did regress (Georgia allowed 10.2 PPG for the season), the defense was one of the best in CFP era and was critical to bring home the championship and the offense was more explosive after the Auburn game.

Let's see where the 2021 team was at this points last season and where it stands through 6 games in 2022.

Overall 

 

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in 2021's first six games, Georgia's defense nearly blanked three SEC teams, and held Clemson to a FG.  Offensively, they were rolling with big chunk plays and garbage time rushing drives.  Leveraging those leads and a elite defense allowed Georgia to rack up a 3.0 Net YPP advantage which was best in football.  As the season went on, this stat regressed but 2.8, but still led all teams in 2021.  Defense did allow more successful plays in second half, but hard not to when you play Michigan and Bama twice.  The offense continued to show improvement in second half.  

 This year, the offense is off to a blistering 57.7% success rate and while red zone effiency is down, Georgia's offense is good even while replacing and growing with the now veteran Bennett as QB.  

Looking at the defense.  Yeah, 27% success rate allowed was not sustainable, and except for the SECCG, was suffocating for the season.  Finishing #2 behind Wisconsin in this metric, they were incredible all year.  This year, one had to expect a drop off.  Can the 2022 hold their  defensive efficiency from this point forward?  Improve?  Regress?  Still think the paint is drying on this side of the ball.  But, confident this unit will be one of the best again this year

Overall Grade:  B+  Defense will need to continue to grow.

Points and Explosiveness

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The 2022 offense is putting up more yards per play than at this point last season.  But, also is allowing more defensively.  Georgia has played some decent defenses in Oregon, Missouri, and Auburn, but Florida, Kentucky, and a late season game in Starkville loom.  Staying above 7.0 YPP by the time Tech comes to town would have to be a successful campaign.  Defensively, the unit needs to improve, not regress.  4.6 YPP is not going to win a championship, but this is the unit which has a lot of upside with young players getting experience with every snap.  Holding the line at 10-15 PPG and 4.2'ish YPP could be the difference between a Sugar Bowl and the playoff.   Looks like points scored won't be the issue for the offense.  Georgia's offense finished with an improvement in offensive explosiveness after week 6, and while the 2022 numbers are low, you have to remember that it has 57.7% success rate.  That volume of success will keep this number low.  Stretching the field will hopefully happen with some improved health at WR and with that some improvement in explosive plays.

Offensive Points and Explosiveness Grade: B.  Need to cash in more drives.

Defensive Points and Explosiveness Grade: B Really good, but needs to be great to compete for title

 

Rush and Pass Breakdown 

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The running game has been INCREDIBLY efficient.  Converting on third downs and short yardage snaps, and a success rate over 60% is something that RBU has to like. The passing attack is also successful at 55%, but with .380 EPA, producing a lower clip at this point last season.  Fewer chunk plays from Bennett and the WR/TE's.   Defensively, success rate allowed on both pass and run has been very good, and probably unfair to compare to 2021's teams.  But, again, if the defense can get better and if they hold these numbers they can beat anyone.  

What is interesting is seeing the percentage of pass plays.  Georgia ended season with a 56/44 split, but through 6 games, it only passed on 37% of snaps.  This year, that number is flipped with Monken calling passes on 55% of plays. This will be interesting to watch down the stretch.  Has the offense evolved to a pass first team?  It is clear that game state is different from last year.  Georgia was dominant after the opener versus Clemson and didn't need to pass as much.  What will Georgia face in the second half and how will that dictate the offensive play calling.

Pass Offense:  A- Still looking for rhythm, short passes to RBs and TEs have move the chains.  Still expecting improvement 

Rush Offense A+  Putting up numbers and being efficient after losing Cook and White.  Expecting good things going forward

Rush Defense B+  Tough act to follow from 2021, but with negative EPA, Georgia is making yards on the ground very difficult.

Pass Defense B  Good not great.  Georgia allowed 50% to Oregon on short passes.  Gave up big plays on the perimeter to Kent State and Auburn.  There is a lot of talent in the secondary, but needs improvement.

The Contenders

 

  W L Net YPP O Suc Rte D Suc Rte O YPP D YPP Rush Plays
Alabama 6 0 3.7 48.3% 33.0% 7.49 3.77 52.2%
Ohio State 6 0 3.6 55.8% 31.0% 8.07 4.47 55.6%
Michigan 6 0 3.0 54.9% 35.1% 6.88 3.87 58.1%
Georgia 6 0 2.6 57.7% 33.0% 7.24 4.6 46.6%
TCU 5 0 2.5 50.3% 40.6% 8.1 5.6 50.9%
Minnesota 4 1 2.5 56.2% 32.5% 6.84 4.37 62.8%
Texas 4 2 2.4 51.1% 35.9% 6.9 4.5 50.5%
Ole Miss 6 0 2.4 50.1% 38.6% 6.91 4.56 60.0%
UCLA 6 0 2.3 53.9% 42.5% 7.17 4.89 52.2%
Florida State 4 2 2.2 47.3% 44.0% 7.02 4.8 53.2%
Tennessee 5 0 2.0 53.4% 39.1% 7.21 5.18 56.6%
Maryland 4 2 1.9 45.3% 40.1% 6.99 5.12 44.4%
Kansas 5 1 1.8 48.3% 44.0% 7.3 5.5 58.1%
Syracuse 5 0 1.8 53.8% 35.1% 6.57 4.82 58.0%
Illinois 5 1 1.7 44.8% 26.9% 5.38 3.73 56.6%
Florida 4 2 1.6 43.9% 45.7% 7.29 5.71 54.7%
Baylor 3 2 1.5 48.1% 37.4% 6.2 4.7 54.2%
Penn State 5 0 1.4 42.3% 36.9% 6.16 4.73 51.8%
USC 6 0 1.4 51.8% 44.7% 6.84 5.46 48.7%
Wisconsin 3 3 1.4 46.1% 40.2% 6.55 5.2 56.2%
Clemson 6 0 1.3 44.8% 35.1% 5.95 4.66 50.0%
Oregon 5 1 1.3 55.6% 42.3% 7 5.74 52.8%
Washington 4 2 1.1 50.3% 41.1% 6.59 5.45 41.9%
Utah 4 2 1.1 51.8% 39.8% 6.59 5.48 55.9%
North Carolina 5 1 1.1 46.4% 48.8% 7.14 6.08 49.0%
Pittsburgh 4 2 1.0 44.0% 37.2% 6.09 5.08 55.0%
Kansas State 5 1 1.0 43.0% 36.7% 6.1 5.1 61.4%
Oregon State 4 2 1.0 43.7% 42.0% 6.61 5.63 54.5%
Mississippi State 5 1 0.9 51.2% 40.8% 6.31 5.42 32.9%
Duke 4 2 0.8 46.4% 40.6% 6.33 5.53 49.5%
Wake Forest 5 1 0.8 46.6% 39.9% 6.18 5.39 51.1%
Oklahoma State 5 0 0.8 45.7% 39.8% 6.1 5.4 48.6%
South Carolina 4 2 0.8 43.3% 44.6% 6 5.25 49.0%
Purdue 4 2 0.6 45.7% 34.4% 5.7 5.06 42.0%
Kentucky 4 2 0.6 43.6% 32.8% 5.69 5.08 47.9%
LSU 4 2 0.6 47.7% 38.8% 5.87 5.27 45.6%
Washington State 4 2 0.5 45.3% 37.2% 5.88 5.37 34.2%
Texas A&M 3 3 0.5 39.9% 41.3% 5.65 5.15 44.8%
NC State 5 1 0.5 44.3% 32.5% 5.25 4.8 47.2%
Oklahoma 3 3 0.4 43.3% 44.7% 6.2 5.7 56.5%
Louisville 3 3 0.4 41.9% 40.3% 6.06 5.69 56.0%
Iowa State 3 3 0.4 41.8% 39.7% 5.2 4.8 40.3%
Rutgers 3 3 0.3 41.8% 36.9% 5.02 4.7 55.9%
Missouri 2 4 0.3 38.8% 36.6% 5.52 5.2 51.1%
Arizona State 2 4 0.3 41.7% 48.7% 5.86 5.6 43.8%
Auburn 3 3 0.3 39.3% 40.5% 5.56 5.3 51.9%
Iowa 3 3 0.3 34.7% 36.5% 4.09 3.83 46.8%
California 3 2 0.2 39.0% 43.6% 5.93 5.69 42.3%
West Virginia 2 3 0.2 47.1% 43.8% 5.9 5.6 46.6%
Texas Tech 3 3 0.0 41.7% 35.9% 5.6 5.5 37.9%
Virginia 2 4 0.0 40.4% 40.4% 5.25 5.27 43.9%
Georgia Tech 3 3 0.0 34.8% 44.7% 5.08 5.1 49.2%
Nebraska 3 3 -0.1 46.6% 45.1% 5.72 5.86 53.6%
Miami 2 3 -0.3 51.9% 36.9% 5.97 6.26 45.0%
Arkansas 3 3 -0.3 46.6% 43.8% 6.18 6.48 63.1%
Arizona 3 3 -0.4 46.4% 52.9% 6.29 6.71 40.4%
Virginia Tech 2 4 -0.5 39.1% 35.9% 4.71 5.22 46.6%
Stanford 1 4 -0.5 43.6% 45.5% 6.01 6.54 46.3%
Michigan State 2 4 -0.5 43.8% 44.0% 5.6 6.14 42.4%
Boston College 2 4 -0.7 34.4% 39.4% 4.69 5.43 41.7%
Northwestern 1 5 -0.9 38.2% 44.2% 4.99 5.9 43.6%
Vanderbilt 3 3 -1.1 43.1% 46.9% 5.83 6.88 54.2%
Indiana 3 3 -1.1 36.7% 43.2% 4.48 5.56 33.8%
Colorado 0 5 -3.0 39.2% 54.7% 4.36 7.35 42.7%
 
  W L Off EPA Def EPA OPPG DPPG Off Exp Def Exp
Alabama 6 0 0.310 -0.070 44.3 12.5 1.435 1.112
Ohio State 6 0 0.506 0.015 48.8 15.7 1.345 1.295
Michigan 6 0 0.363 -0.037 43 11.3 1.108 1.124
Georgia 6 0 0.401 -0.013 39.5 10.7 1.091 1.173
TCU 5 0 0.473 0.182 46.4 23.8 1.506 1.379
Minnesota 4 1 0.414 0.065 38.6 8.8 1.156 1.247
Texas 4 2 0.365 0.052 38.8 17.8 1.255 1.260
Ole Miss 6 0 0.345 0.040 39.7 14.5 1.355 1.071
UCLA 6 0 0.341 0.138 41.5 22.7 1.210 1.176
Florida State 4 2 0.366 0.177 31.3 20.8 1.411 1.161
Tennessee 5 0 0.407 0.149 46.8 17.8 1.231 1.353
Maryland 4 2 0.281 0.076 34 22.7 1.259 1.203
Kansas 5 1 0.412 0.239 39.8 26.3 1.411 1.180
Syracuse 5 0 0.410 0.031 38.4 14 1.171 1.155
Illinois 5 1 0.147 -0.075 26 8 1.069 1.352
Florida 4 2 0.321 0.178 30.8 25.3 1.494 1.235
Baylor 3 2 0.305 0.093 37.4 20.6 1.291 1.130
Penn State 5 0 0.215 0.042 34.4 14.8 1.410 1.261
USC 6 0 0.362 0.077 40.2 18.7 1.226 1.174
Wisconsin 3 3 0.315 0.072 31.8 19.5 1.305 1.114
Clemson 6 0 0.300 0.041 39.3 18.3 1.255 1.211
Oregon 5 1 0.362 0.209 42 28.8 1.115 1.352
Washington 4 2 0.352 0.201 41 26.8 1.276 1.369
Utah 4 2 0.285 0.075 40.3 19 1.105 1.240
North Carolina 5 1 0.425 0.254 42.3 32 1.533 1.134
Pittsburgh 4 2 0.271 0.086 35 26.2 1.355 1.332
Kansas State 5 1 0.227 0.025 28.7 16.7 1.192 1.184
Oregon State 4 2 0.263 0.184 32.5 27.2 1.400 1.196
Mississippi State 5 1 0.302 0.078 38.5 21 1.157 1.258
Duke 4 2 0.213 0.135 32.5 19.7 1.073 1.216
Wake Forest 5 1 0.241 0.141 41.2 25.5 1.185 1.309
Oklahoma State 5 0 0.257 0.165 46.4 24.8 1.270 1.321
South Carolina 4 2 0.201 0.124 33.7 25 1.353 1.030
Purdue 4 2 0.220 -0.046 32.5 22 1.142 1.193
Kentucky 4 2 0.194 0.034 26.3 16.3 1.272 1.407
LSU 4 2 0.271 0.113 31.8 19 1.277 1.286
Washington State 4 2 0.212 0.089 27 20.2 1.368 1.372
Texas A&M 3 3 0.126 0.109 21.5 18.8 1.333 1.156
NC State 5 1 0.195 0.055 30.5 15.7 1.180 1.389
Oklahoma 3 3 0.237 0.231 30.8 29.2 1.327 1.256
Louisville 3 3 0.205 0.155 27.7 22.3 1.327 1.411
Iowa State 3 3 0.177 0.036 23.2 13.7 1.154 1.035
Rutgers 3 3 0.062 0.096 22.8 22 1.004 1.265
Missouri 2 4 0.077 0.145 25.2 24.7 1.262 1.379
Arizona State 2 4 0.182 0.263 26.8 30.2 1.330 1.159
Auburn 3 3 0.158 0.147 20.3 25 1.415 1.198
Iowa 3 3 -0.006 -0.035 14.7 9.8 1.125 0.912
California 3 2 0.244 0.156 25.8 22 1.451 1.240
West Virginia 2 3 0.295 0.236 38.2 29.6 1.260 1.266
Texas Tech 3 3 0.213 0.142 34.3 29.8 1.369 1.386
Virginia 2 4 0.119 0.149 17.8 24.8 1.247 1.120
Georgia Tech 3 3 0.035 0.161 17.3 28 1.268 1.131
Nebraska 3 3 0.260 0.209 28.5 29.3 1.215 1.223
Miami 2 3 0.221 0.123 32.8 21.8 1.061 1.465
Arkansas 3 3 0.199 0.272 29.5 32.2 1.211 1.453
Arizona 3 3 0.242 0.343 30.3 34.2 1.323 1.133
Virginia Tech 2 4 0.075 0.156 20 26 1.156 1.353
Stanford 1 4 0.215 0.274 29 32.8 1.296 1.200
Michigan State 2 4 0.215 0.248 25.8 27 1.271 1.331
Boston College 2 4 0.088 0.144 20 29 1.450 1.287
Northwestern 1 5 0.080 0.179 17.7 27.7 1.139 1.166
Vanderbilt 3 3 0.239 0.273 33.2 36.8 1.288 1.362
Indiana 3 3 0.088 0.165 24.3 30.5 1.279 1.171
Colorado 0 5 0.119 0.452 13.4 43.2 1.253 1.360
                 

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