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Dawg Stats

A blog by Josh Hancher in Articles

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About this blog

A blog about the numbers and advanced statistics from College Football.  I will primarily look at this through the UGA prism but will cover a lot of teams.  Ask questions, bring your own research, join us as we learn and discuss the games.

Entries in this blog

Stats

Dawg Stats Data Dump

You can get the full data set in an excel spreadsheet in the forum, but here's where the Power 5+ (sorry not including the Fun Belt Conference just yet) stand after week 2. Net YPP Top 25 Offensive Success Rate Defensive Success Rate SEC Ranks SEC Defensive Metrics SEC Offensive Metrics SEC Defensive Metrics by Success Rate Allowed SEC Offensive Metrics By Success Rate   Current National Championship Odd
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Picks

Dawgs Central Week 2 Preview

@Jon Tweets Sports@Graham Coffey@Josh Hancher just dropped the preview for this week's games.  We go through almost 20 different games and really only differed on a few.   Check it out on the Pod or on YouTube.  Please rate and review for us if you can.  Also, jump into the fun with Prize Picks.  Easy, fun, legal in Georgia.  Code DAWGSCENTRAL for up to $100 deposit match. Also, check the latest "Ask Dawg Central" if you missed us last night    
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Film Review

Dawgs Central Oregon Film Breakdown

@Graham Coffey goes through the game, breaking down over 50 plays on offense and defense.  @Jon Tweets Sports and I jump in with analysis and stats.  Absolute deep dive into the game.  If you haven't seen our show yet, it's a ton of info and will show you some things you might not have caught before.  Please, check it out, like, review and share!!!  Thank you guys  
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Stats

Week 1 @Dawg_Stats Blitz

There isn't a whole lot more that hasn't been said, and the stats confirm the the dominant performance by the offense, and arguably both sides of the ball.  Although some mentioned the success that Oregon had on third down as the Ducks were 53% on third down.  Yet, they only managed 4.6 YPP on offense which was doubled up by the Stetson Bennett show. The offense's nearly 68.9% non garbage time success rate was the 5th best versus Power 5 competition this century.  The .772 Game E
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Live Show

Behind the recruiting scenes with Dustin and Jason from Field Street Forum

Jason Brassell and Dustin Wood tell us what it takes to be the "go to" guys on the recruiting front.  Founders of Field St Forum and now teamed up with Dawgs Central, they take us behind the scenes to tell what it takes to keep Dawg fans up to date with the latest recruiting news and intel.  Jason and Dustin not only take us through their paths to get here, but go through some of the latest recruiting news and make a prediction on Monday's decision for Monroe Freeling.  The 6'5" 280 lb Offensive
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Stats

A question about all of these stats

@Jimmy Guthriehad a good question over in the forum. Be sure to check it out and get your download of our season preview.   Jimmy's question was a good one and I was happy to offer up my take on how to look at these stats and maybe how to use them.  I'll post my answer the blog, but one of my favorite features on the site that @Jon Tweets Sportshas made for you guys is the ability to upload files.  Seems simple, but being able to drop in one of spreadsheets for you guys to have and use on y
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Stats

Meet Nathan and Ross and their CBCr2 Predictive Model

On my latest episode of "Meet Your Twitter Friends" Ross Rutledge (@dawgquant) and Nathan Lawrence (@chapelbellcurve) come on to share and discuss the predictive model for college football.  Ross is a no joke data scientist who is producing numbers for both NFL and College that can analyze and predict power rankings for teams. The obvious application is betting. Listen in and see not only what went into the model but applications beyond beating the betting market.   Ross's work can be found
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Live

Another "Ask Dawgs Central" in the Books

@Graham Coffey was joined by @Jason Brassell Dustin and myself to take questions.  We have them lined up from you guys, twitter, and YouTube.  We are really growing this thing. Thank you guys. If you missed it, you can check it out on our podcast feeds, our YouTube Channel, and on Twitter.  We do it every week, and we love hearing what you guys are wondering about.  If you haven't done so already, please subscribe, rate, review, and share so we can spread the word.     The s
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Live

Dawgs Central Takes Questions Live

If you have gotten your questions into "Ask Dawgs Central" - Great!  We will answer them all.  You can watch and listen live on Twitter or on our YouTube Channel.  It will post to our podcast feeds after we wrap it up.  
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SEC Preview

SEC West Team by Team Preview from Dawgs Central

So, we've wound our way through the power 5 and finally got into our bread and butter.... The SEC.  @Jon Tweets Sports@Graham Coffeyand I are all on the Tide to represent the west in Atlanta.  How and who can contend to be #2 or give Alabama an L on the way.   Who are the players you need to know?  What are the narratives that will play themselves out?   We give a deep dive on all the teams in the west. Please subscribe, like and share our shows and spread the word about Dawgs Central's sho
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NIL, UGA Football

Meet Your Twitter Friends: UGA Lawyer Twitter

UGA has a top tier law school with many distinguished alums.  These guys are not only that, but also incredibly smart football fans.  I ask Sarah, Tony, and Jeremy to come on and actually educate me, and hopefully you, about the ACTUAL legal issues around the NIL.  No one can deny that it is the Wild Wild West, but as these ACTUAL lawyers explain, there isn't much hope to laws being written to change it.   Jeremy drops a really important nugget and is anticipating some lawsuits between play
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Ask Dawgs Central

Live recruiting intel drops and player news from "Ask Dawgs Central"

We had nearly a full house of Dawgs Central last night on "Ask Dawg Central"  @Jason Brassell gave us the next three potential commits,  @Graham Coffeyfilled us in on the latest news, @Jon Tweets Sports and @Lovelacejumped in to the conversation, too.   Please subscribe to our YouTube Channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get you podcasts.   And take a minute to leave a review as it will help us spread the word about Dawgs Central and grow our community.
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Stats

Dawgs Central B1G Preview

@Jon Tweets Sports, @Graham Coffeyand I went through the B1G and while we are in agreement that Ohio State is the clear favorite and likely winner, we diverged a bit from there.  Graham is very high on a Michigan team returning a solid passing attack and enough defense to make a run to Indy. Check it out on Twitter or on YouTube         Ohio State Wisconsin Michigan Iowa Nebraska  
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stats

Meet Your Twitter Friends: Kelley Ford

Kelley Ford of KFordRatings.com was nice enough to join me to break down his preseason rankings and shared with us what goes into his predictive numbers.  Check it out on Pod or our YouTube Channel          
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stats

3 Year Trends of Offensive and Defensive Success Rate

Exciting title, right?  I have made a couple of graphs.  These are the percentage of games where a team's offense beat their opponents defensive success rate allowed.  Alabama is obviously on a 3 year heater with just a few games where the offensive success rate didn't exceed what their opponents were allowing to opposing offenses.  I was a little surprised to see Georgia's as mediocre as it was.  Once I saw the 2020 figure of just 40% of games, I realized that Georgia only had a 44% offensive s
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Stats

Advanced Metrics and Actual Points

If you are reading this, then I know that at the very least you have a basic understanding of the analytics and metrics we discuss on the show and on this blog.   Success rate is percentage of plays which gain a certain number of yards based on down and distance.  50% of yards to gain on 1st down. 70% on 2nd down, and 100% of yards gained on 3rd and 4th downs.  Offense wants a high percentage and Defense wants a low percentage.  It is binary and does't offer any context.  A contextualized m
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Test

Priors Matter

As soon as the game clock in the Football Playoff Final hits 00:00, there is a "Way Too Early" ranking available from damn every outlet.  Those rankings are based on that season and looking ahead to what each team might carry over into the next season.  Bettors certainly factor previous seasons into their "priors" and some models factor multiple seasons into their attempts to predict who might win a game or, more importantly, cover a spread. We are inside 50 days until we get to watch the 2
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Season Previews

Pac 12 Season Preview

Check out the latest show from Dawgs Central.  This blog has been updated with all our show graphics for you to take a closer look.  Thanks for checking this out and sharing on social media         SC is the betting favorite to win the league, with UCLA and Oregon all competing to upset the Trojans.  Lincoln Riley loaded up on offensive players from not only Oklahoma, but raided Oregon and Stanford and the best receiver in the college from Pitt with Jordan Addision
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Game Tape

Top Play Calls from 2021

If you have followed me for any length of time, you know that I comb many places for data and info to share with you guys.  At the top of my list of critical sources of info is SEC Stat Cat.  Clark Brooks charts every offensive play for every SEC Team, and I add it to my data to sort and show you guys another level of plays.  Graham does a fantastic job of taking the video and breaking it down.  Following both of these guys and the breakdowns they share will make you a smart Bulldog fan for sure
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Stats

Closing Line Value?

Opening and Closing Lines for all (most?) from the 2021 Season.  Look back and see some of the games with the biggest line movements.  The biggest was the Tulane OU game which moved to Norman. Knowing your stuff and getting down early might make the difference between a winning and losing week, season, career :) Home Score Away Score Close Open formattedSpread CL Winner Winning Margin Oklahoma 40 Tulane 35 -31.5 -22 Oklahoma -31.5 9.5 Oklahoma 5
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