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Stats Recap: Kent State, National, and SEC Metrics and Stats

Josh Hancher

Georgia fans were underwhelmed with the win over Kent State on Saturday.  Looking at the numbers can point to the areas of concern.  Georgia allowed 47% success rate on defense, the first points allowed in the first quarter, several long drives, plus a long touchdown.  Offensively, they didn't seem to in sync either.  Several Drops, muffed punt and fumble from a reliable McConkey.  Georgia didn't capitalize on several drive settling for field goals.  

Let's talk about the run game.  Georgia still is solid with a  63% rush success rate.  They are getting the yards they need especially on short yardage plays.  That is in large part to a a 8.4 yards per play on 1st down (10.7 pass/6.0 rush) and 67% success rate.  When the offense faces a 2nd and 6 or less, they are successful on 70% of rush attempts averaging 4.3 yards per attempt on 30 attempts.  On third down, Georgia has run it 17 times (only once with yards to gain >5) and has 76% success rate and 4.8 yards per attempt. 

Georgia has run it 50 times on 1st and 10 with 6.9 yards per attempt, 68% Success Rate, and .309 EPA.  Monken has called a pass play 65 time on 1st and 10, 66% success rate, 10.8 yards per attempt, and .392 EPA.  That is about at solid as you can get.  9 of the 28 unsuccessful 1st and 10's were on the first drives of the Oregon, Samford, SC, and Kent State games. All of those drives ended in points.  We can certainly ask for more rushing production.  Just not sure that Monken is building the offense around a 6+ YPC offense.  It's getting the playmaker's in space.  Kenny McIntosh is averaging 3.9 YPC, but is third on team in total EPA just 4 points behind Brock Bowers with Stetson Bennett leading the team. (EPA measures the value of yards gained based on down, distance, and field position) 


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Here are the 1st and 3rd Down plays by the defense. Looking forward to the breakdown from @Graham Coffeyand @Jon Tweets Sports




As we zoom out from the team specifics, there are clear signs of defensive regression.  Georgia has allowed 4.5 yards per play but a solid 35% success rate allowed to opposing offenses.  The yards are up from 2021, but the success rate is on track. Very few defenses are putting together a better effort and Georgia has a net YPP of over 3.  I do a crude opponent adjustment for the Net YPP which factors in 247 Talent Composite Faced, and Georgia is third in country after factoring in talent faced.

Once you get to the expanded stats for the SEC, you will see a very low offensive explosiveness rating.  Keep in mind that the explosiveness metric is the average EPA of the offense's successful plays.  Georgia's offense is running at 62% success rate, (best in Power 5) so there are a LOT of successful plays.  That will tend to lower the average EPA for this metric.  Expect the success rate to regress a bit and the explosiveness to increase.  That said, Georgia is leaving points on the field.  Last year, they averaged 1.2 points scored for every successful play. Through 4 games, that average is 1.0.  Again, all of this is still a very small sample size and at the end of the day- they have +38 average scoring margin.   

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Offensive Player Stats and Metrics

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