Week 4 @DawgStats Data Viz and Week 5 Preview

Entry posted by Josh Hancher in Stats · September 26, 2023

Chart 1: Success Rate/Points

Week 4 is in the book, and schedules will almost be exclusively be conference games. That doesn't mean there aren't mismatches ahead, but success rates are going to tighten up. The average winning team is posting a 48% success rate and losing team has moved up to 37%. After week one, those were 51%/35%. The three year FBS average is 47%/42%. Penn State stuck Iowa down there on the 18% success rate/0 points scored. That was the lowest success rate of any Power 5 team this season

Good to great teams will hold onto there 50%+ success rate and allow sub 40% to their opponents. Teams which I have no trouble believing can do that

Washington

Oregon

Oklahoma

Teams with incredible offensive success rate, but not sure about the defensive side

USC

Kansas

Miami

Louisville

Chart 2: Offensive Success Rate/EPA

While chart one is individual games, the next charts are season averages. I have only plotted the logos for the Power 5 teams. The Metrics Chart has all FBS, but you'll have to use you math skills to visualize those teams on here 🙂 . Here we have those critical success rates but instead of points scored, this has EPA. Higher up = more explosive. Further right = higher success rate/efficient. Look at Clemson and Miami. They are 15th and 16th nationally in success rate. While Miami's EPA is almost twice as high as Clemson. One of them is 2-2 and the other is 4-0. Miami is putting up 43 PPG, but Clemson is getting 37 PPG. So, what does that mean? Miami's higher EPA tells us that their offense is capable of explosive plays anywhere on the field. Clemson needs more plays to score.

Other teams of note, Oklahoma has gaudy numbers thus far, but returned to earth metrically speaking versus Cincy on Saturday. Oregon, USC, and Washington can and will put points up on anyone. Louisville, Kansas, and LSU are very explosive - but can they sustain it into conference? Look at the clump in 45%-50% and .200-.400 EPA. Their offense output is depended on quality of defense they play. And look to the left of them. Certainly, FSU jumps out at you. .300 EPA is solid considering they've faced LSU and Clemson, but living in the 45% success rate range is dicey for a ACC title run.

Georgia has good numbers, but would love have them higher up in the .400 EPA. Big plays are there, they gotta hit 'em.

Can't leave this chart without doing the bottom left. Not sure Utah will decide the Pac 12 this year. And we should burn the playbooks in the state of Iowa.

Chart 3: Defensive Success Rate/EPA

Same chart as the offensive side of the ball, but values are inverted so that quality remains up/right. Penn State has put up stoooopid defensive numbers. And the wobbly OSU offense has to have the Nittany Lions fans thinking this is the year. Utah, WVU, and Syracuse are 4-0 because of their defense. Florida is one of three teams allowing under 30% success rate to opposing offenses, but that EPA is good - not great.

Oklahoma and Oregon have championship defensive numbers to go with their elite offenses. Georgia and Michigan are right there with them, and this continued performance will have them in the hunt for a conference title. Alabama, Tennessee, TAMU, and -to a slightly lesser extent, Clemson- have good efficiency numbers - all allowing sub 35% success rate to teams- but their higher EPA allowed shows they are susceptible to bigger plays.

A complete PDF is available in the forum

National Metrics and Stats

Success Rate/EPA Charts by Conference

Notable Week 4 Box Scores

Clemson has won the success rate battle in every game, but a low EPA and low Explosive Play rate is costing them games. Saturday was no exceptions.

FSU is running the ball with just a 39% success rate. They got a huge win, but need some efficiency on offense to make a run at the CFP

This is was the most pedestrian the Sooners have looked on offense. But, this game was never in doubt, and that is because the defense is solid this year.

Ole Miss has put up points this year, despite the offense not as efficient as last year. Ole Miss had one of the best running games last year and this year they are the 103rd rushing efficient teams in success rate and 56th in Rush EPA. Bama gave them nothing on the ground

Washington had 14 points before the offense took a snap. Penix and the Huskies thumped Cal and threw it all over the yard.

The Colorado bubble burst. This was predictable, and more of these games are likely in the future. The passing offense is just "ok" and very depended on big plays. Oregon is good good.