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It's here... Game Day is here

Josh Hancher

This game is, statistically speaking, heavily favors Georgia.  Things that give one pause before making it a "lock" 

  • Georgia's allowed the highest Passing Success Rate in last two games
  • TCU has come back 6 times this season and is 2-1 outright as an underdog (actually were underdogs in Big 12 Championship Game)
  • Georgia is less than 100% health (but so is TCU)
  • Inner Munsons

The opening line was Georgia -13.5 which was quickly bet to -12.5.  Since Saturday it has crept back towards Georgia at -13. (Moved to -13.5 at noon EST) But both -12.5 and -13.5 are out there.  No late max bets are coming in against the Dawgs like it did in the Peach Bowl where the line moved a full two point in the last 24 hours to kickoff.  Pro bettors and agree this is a mismatch in Georgia's favor. But if you intend to bet, bet at Draft Kings if you can as you only have to lay -12.5. (This line no longer available)



Let's do one last comp of the two teams.  As seen here, the season long metrics mostly all favor Georgia, but I will break down these with last for games too. Also, check out a drive data with indexed video of the TCU victory over Michigan and Individual Stats for both teams in some earlier blogs.  I also posted a statistical look at the second half of TCU's season where they trailed in 6 of 9 games and how they managed to come back and win enough of them to make the CFP

CFP Preview.jpg

Georgia's Recent Offense v TCU Recent Defense (last 4 games)

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Georgia led all FBS teams in Offense Pass Success Rate and that trend held up over the last four games (6th over that span) and actually increased their YPA slightly with only Alabama and FSU having a higher yards per pass attempt in power 5 than Georgia's 8.8.  Georgia saw another bump in that last 4 games in their rushing attack getting 5.8 yards per attempt while season average was 5.5 - although this came with some decrease in efficiency (51% success rate for the the season with 44% over the last four game.

Defensively, TCU has regressions from season long averages, almost across the board. Allowing 5.5 yards per rush whereas season long was 4.1 and also allowed a higher average in defensive pass averages 7.5 to 7.0 season long average. This came with a higher success rate allowed both defending the run (44% to 46%) and pass (37% to 41%).

Something worth noting that over that stretch, Georgia faced the 18th, 73rd, 43rd, and 4th ranked defenses in terms of success rate allowed. TCU ranks 38th for season in that metric.  TCU faced the 25th, 103rd, 59th, and 8th ranked offense in success rate.  Georgia is 3rd nationally in Offensive Success Rate.

TCU's  Recent Offense v Georgia's Recent Defense (last 4 games)

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TCU's season long offensive success rate is 44.5% and that basically matches what they have done over their last four matchups.  You can see that the TCU offense has leaned heavily on their rushing attack and has been successful.  They are .5 Yards Per Rush better than season average and improved on their 47% season long rush success rate.  Passing wise, not as pretty a picture.  They are almost a  full 3 yards lower than their season long passing YPP of 9.1 (which is 9th in FBS), and their passing success rate, already mid, decreased to under 40% success rate in their last four games.

This should be good news for Georgia fans wringing their hands after seeing the pass defense give up 8.4 YPP and 48% pass success rate to LSU and 8.2 and 55% to Ohio State.  Those two games obliterated what Georgia was allowing all season.  Kentucky, LSU, and OSU all had higher offensive YPP against Georgia than their season average. Although, the defense only allowed OSU to break 40% rush success rate holding the other three to 37% rush success rate. 

Over this 4 game span, TCU has faced the 87th, 41st, 27th, and 10th ranked defenses in terms of success rate allowed. Georgia is ranked 5th nationally. Noteworthy is that TCU also face three defenses that ranked 21st or better in pass success rate allowed.  Georgia is 8th in this metric.

Georgia's opposing offenses ranked 86th, 124th, 10th, and 9th is offensive success rate.  TCU is ranked 54th in this metric and 57th over last four games....


My Prediction

I expect Georgia to run the ball quite efficiently and excited to see a healthy Milton get bulk of carries with McIntosh getting touches and working as a change of pace to work the middle of field with Bowers as a receiving threat.  I expect that Georgia will run fewer than 55-60 snaps with efficiency and score in mid thirties.  I also expect that TCU will struggle sustaining drives and scoring points.  Without a consistent passing attack, the defense will clue in on the TCU running threats making it hard for TCU to score more than 20.  

34-10 as Georgia becomes just the 4 team in my lifetime to go back to back National Championships



Edited by Josh Hancher
Updated line

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