"Returning Production" is a phrase that we all hear in the offseason.  Bill Connelly publishes and weights his returning production metrics.  You can read his current projections on ESPN.com and previous seasons on SBNation Football Study Hall.  To summarize, not all returning production is the same.  Offensive Line and Running back production is mostly replaceable and Passing and Receiving production is less replaceable.  Defensively, passes defended are harder to replace than TFLs.  So with that in mind, and with every football fan in the know universe knowing that Georgia had a record 15 players drafted, let's look at what the Dawgs do bring back.

Offensively Georgia brings back their starting QB and leading pass catcher, and overall the offense returns 73% of their offensive production. This makes a little more sense to how he factors in his stats considering that the Zamir White and James Cook led the Georgia running attack, yet, he calculates the offense that hight.  The unit is projected at 43rd in returning offensive production. Georgia returned 84% of their 2020 offensive production last year, and increased their offensive efficiency from 2020.  The 2020 offense averaged 6.2 yards per play in 2020 and 7.0 YPP in 2021. Their efficiency improved from 2020's 44% success rate to 49.5% in 2021.  I believe that their is room still for improvement.  Here is the offensive success rate and offensive yards per play by year under Smart.

Georgia's returning offensive production stacks up well with other units in the playoff era. Ironically the 2021 unit which brought back 84% ranks first among playoff teams over the last 5 seasons. The 2020 Alabama team (55% of offensive returning production) was the lowest to win playoff.  Worth noting that returning Offensive Production is fairly representative of the entirety of college football with teams returning as much as 84% of production and as little as 32%.

Ok, so let's look at that returning production as related to the season's Offensive YPP and Success Rate.  I think it's important to realize offensive returning is important, but the quality of returning production is important.  Returning 70%+ of an offense which had a 5.2 YPP is unlikely to reach CFP quality offense JUST because it brings back a lot of dudes.  LSU 2020 is the exception and is possible but even in this small sample size, unlikely.  The average offensive yards per play for a college football playoff team the last five seasons is 7.1 YPP and improved from .3 YPP from the previous season.

Lets look at the playoff teams +/- in offensive success rate.  LSU 2019 is clearly an outlier and are only one of the three teams which made playoff and improved offensive success rate by more that 5% over previous season. Only 4 teams made playoff with a previous season offensive success rate of less than 45% ( 2017 UGA, 2021 Michigan, 2020 ND, and 2021 Cincinnati)

With a significant number of teams which made the playoff having quality offense the previous season (>6.0 Off YPP and >46% Off SR) let's see teams which met these metrics in 2021 and look at how much of that offense they return.  Any of these teams look like they can make the jump to elite level offenses? BYU the Cincinnati of 2022? Is Utah still the team to beat out west?  Next blog will run through the defensive side of the ball.