3 Keys: How Georgia Gets Back in the Win Column vs Auburn

It's been nearly four years since Georgia football has played a regular season game following a loss. In 2024, here we are, after Georgia came up "a moment short", according to Kirby Smart on the road last week at Alabama. Now, Georgia returns home for its annual Homecoming game against conference rival Auburn. In another edition of 'The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry', a game played for the first time back in 1892, Georgia is looking to right the ship. 

However, despite a 2-3 record, Auburn has shown flashes, and Smart and Georgia have historically struggled against Hugh Freeze-led teams. Even last season, in Jordan-Hare Stadium, the game came down to the heroics of Brock Bowers. A year later, both teams look much different and the home-field advantage will be in favor of Georgia. 

Here are 3 Keys to a Georgia victory. 

Winning the Turnover Battle

The turnover margin is easy to point to, as it is typically representative of winning football. If you take the ball away from your opponent more than you give it to them, you're more likely to win. However, this week especially, the turnover battle means everything.

Painfully flashing back to last week, Georgia got dominated in the turnover department, giving the ball away four times and only forcing one turnover. Add in the safety as well and the pendulum swings further in favor of Alabama. And yet, Georgia had a lead with less than two minutes to go and nearly pulled off one of the greatest comebacks we've ever seen.

As for this week's opponent, the Tigers' record could look drastically different if they could limit turnovers. In their three losses this season, they are a combined -9 in turnover differential. Five turnovers against California, four against Arkansas and one against Oklahoma that was a game-losing pick-six. 

Auburn is currently 131st in FBS in turnover margin per game, season turnover margin and 132nd in turnovers lost. While Georgia's defense has raised questions over the past two games, the unit is better than any of Auburn's opponents to this point in the season. 

On offense, Georgia typically takes care of the ball well. Currently, Georgia's season turnover margin is even after having one takeaway in each of the first three before losing the turnover battle 4-1 to Alabama. 

Coming off of one of Georgia's worst turnover performances in recent memory, it will be a big key for success on Saturday. If Auburn turns the ball over like it has throughout the young season, Georgia should roll. 

Selling out against the Run

"The standard" for a Kirby Smart defense is physical football that makes nothing easy and looks near-perfect in all fundamental aspects. Against Alabama, it wasn't, and it even dates back to Kentucky. While Georgia hadn't given up a touchdown on the season through three games, its defense was shaky at Kentucky, uncharacteristically struggling with outside containment and tackling. Those issues were only made worse in the first half against Alabama, as Jalen Milroe ran freely to the sidelines and Georgia struggled to bring players to the ground. 

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne may not be the biggest threat to run like Milroe, but Georgia struggled to contain him last year, as he rushed for 92 yards on 12 carries. In a Hugh Freeze offense, the scheme features many RPOs, which force defenses to make quick decisions on how to defend the play. If Georgia's edges get caught crashing inside too far like last week, Auburn could have success finding room outside. 

Beyond just Thorne's ability, running back Jarquez Hunter is more than capable in the backfield. With 437 yards, he's averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Facing a team that's struggled to tackle recently, something to watch is Hunter after contact, where he has been great this season, averaging 4.6 yards. 

Hot Start

Currently, Georgia's offense is averaging 32.2 points per game, just behind Auburn's 33.4. Georgia's offense has looked good, from a total perspective. However, Georgia has scored 40 total points in the first half this season, averaging 10 points per first half. The second half? 89 total points, an average of 22.25. 

For whatever reason, Georgia's second-half offense has significantly outperformed the first-half. While some of that can be attributed to the game script in the second half against Alabama, it was a similar story in a close first half against Clemson. 

Every Georgia fan is looking for a quick start, where Georgia can put away a team early, and it hasn't happened this year, other than against Tennessee Tech. In a rivalry game of this caliber against Auburn, it is imperative to get out early on the scoreboard and not let them hang around longer than they should. Georgia escaped with a win last year and narrowly edged out Kentucky this season, but there's a reason they say "Don't play with your food."

Georgia needs to bury Auburn quickly for this game to be comfortable. 

Prediction

I like the spot for Georgia, although I said that last week. Coming off of a loss, returning home for a rivalry while welcoming back generations of bulldogs for Homecoming, Georgia has something to prove. Not only to itself but to everyone watching. I think that all of these keys will be executed well, and Georgia will return to the standard of football everyone has come to expect. 

I see Georgia winning the turnover margin by at least two and I think that the front seven reminds those watching of the talent there, dominating the line of scrimmage and bringing Auburn runners down early in the backfield. 

As for the hot start, I predict Georgia will score a touchdown on its first offensive drive and pick up right where it left off in the second half at Alabama. 

Auburn is a better football team than most might expect, but Georgia gets ahead early in this one and comfortably cruises, the outcome never in doubt.

Final Score

Georgia - 37

Auburn - 17

Photo via UGAA