The Georgia Bulldogs (-5.5) vs The Alabama Crimson Tide

3:30 P.M. (EST) on CBS

Broadcasters: Brad Nessler (Play by Play) and Gary Danielson (Color)

36-0 in three consecutive regular seasons… my friends, do not forget to relish in these times. 29 wins in a row (SEC Record), 25 players selected in the ’22 and ’23 NFL Drafts, two national championships, All-Americans, award winners, the list goes on. In a time of college football where competition has never been so good and where roster maintenance has never been so difficult, Kirby Smart has built a self-sustaining ecosystem in Athens. The likes of Smart’s immediate success are uber rare and they should be marveled at by Georgia and college football fans alike.

It is very important to realize that we are currently in The Golden Days of Dawg football, but this dynasty has been built upon forward thinking and the refusal of complacency. Ahead lies #8 Alabama and a trip to the College Football Playoff. In my opinion, no conference will get two teams in the playoffs, meaning this would be a de facto elimination game for the two SEC giants. This matchup has played host to so many classic finishes, and I think we are in for another knife fight on Saturday. Here are some of my insights on The SEC Championship Game.

Alabama Offense

No need to beat around the bush, I see Jalen Milroe’s legs as the biggest threat on this offensive unit. He has 126 gives for 439 yards, which only comes out to a YPC of 3.5, but Jalen has 12 TDs on the ground. He’s averaging 229.6 yards per game through the air with 21 TDs, 6 INTs, and a completion percentage of 66.4%. The Bama RB’s do get their share of the pie, with Jase McClellan leading the team with 166 attempts, 803 yards, and 6 TDs. Roydell Williams rounds out the main ball carriers with 94 touches for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. My take on Milroe as a quarterback is that he is a pocket passer by nature but possesses the speed to cause a lot of issues. He also throws the deep ball up there with the best in football (97.9 Grade on throws of 20+), and he excels off play action. Despite my singing his praises, there are weak areas to exploit. Jalen’s PFF Passing Grade goes from an 87.8 off play action, to a 78.8 mark on straight drops. His Pass Grade goes from a 91.6 to a 51.2 on plays when kept clean vs. under pressure. Milroe also seems to struggle on intermediate throws, especially between the hashes. Of 22 attempts on intermediate throws over the middle, Jalen has a grade of 43.9, 50% CMP, and 3 TDs to 3 INTs. For comparison, Carson Beck has a 93.8 grade and a 74.1% CMP in the same area. Another comforting stat is that Milroe has only thrown the ball >30 times once this year against Texas A&M. His second most attempts in a game came against Texas where his stat line was 14-27 for 255 and 2-2. In summary, I believe Alabama will be able to put up some rushing yardage. I also feel as if Georgia can give up 150+ on the ground and still win this game comfortably. The Dawg offense itself will score some points, and I do not have a ton of faith in Milroe beating us with his arm. Kamari Lassiter has turned into a true lockdown corner that will erase whoever he is guarding. Starks and Bullard are the best safety combo in the country and rarely get beat deep.

According to Alabama sources, lead back Jase McClellan has missed practice for the first half of this week with a lingering foot injury. It is up in the air whether he will suit up on Saturday, and that would put the bulk of the carries on Roydell Williams/ Milroe.

Moving on to the offensive line, they have greatly improved as the season progressed. The Tide rank T-113^th in the nation with 39 sacks allowed on the year, an average of 3.25 per game. UGA is T-64^th with 25 team sacks, along with being T-98^th in TFL with 5.0 per game. 26 of the 34 sacks on Milroe came in Alabama’s first six games, while they haven’t allowed more than three in a game since week 8. Here are some grades and rankings for the Tide O-line:

Does anything stick out there? Kadyn Proctor came in as the #1 OT in the 2023 class and has been starting since day one for UA. Proctor is a great athlete and a physical run blocker, but he struggles against twitchy pass rushers. I would keep an eye… maybe two eyes on whoever the Dawgs have lined up over the young LT. McLaughlin at Center is another solid run blocker who struggles with speed rushing. The Dawgs front seven must take advantage of these weak spots and keep pressure on the QB.

You may have noticed that I am just now getting around to discussing Alabama’s WR room, which is an anomaly compared to past UA teams that UGA has faced. Isaiah Bond is their leading receiver with 39 catches for 542 yards and 4 TDs. Former Bulldog Jermaine Burton is the deep threat out of the group averaging 22.7 yards per catch on 33 receptions, while also sporting 7 TDs. From there, the Tide do not have another player with more than 18 catches.

Alabama Defense

Keeping up with traditions, Alabama is still running a 3-4 multiple defense. UA is T-9^th nationally with 3.0 sacks per game and 33^rd with 6.3 TFL per game. Rather than Bama having their one dominant edge rusher, Dallas Turner, Chris Braswell, and Justin Eboigbe all have at least 6 sacks and 10 TFL a piece. Another former Dawg, Trezman Marshall, has been instrumental for the Bama defense at the ILB position. The unit as a whole ranks 17^th in yards allowed with 312.7, and they are sitting at 14^th in the nation with 17.9 PPGa.

UA’s defense has given up 20+ points in 7 contests this season. The most points allowed came in their week two loss to Texas. Here is what the Longhorns did right: Quinn Ewers went 24/38 for 349 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs. Texas had zero turnovers and put up 454 yards of offense with a middling run game. Bama had a very difficult time covering Texas’s TE Ja’Tavion Sanders who had 5 catches for 114 yards. If only there was a mismatch nightmare of a TE in red and black that we could utilize! Brock Bowers is undoubtedly still not at 100%, but I see very few scenarios where he stands on the sideline watching this game. Bowers is a competitor of the highest order, and I expect that he’ll be chomping at the bit to make an impact in this game.

Quinn Ewers averaged 14.5 yards per completion with 4 connections of 30+ yards, but a lot of damage was dealt on the perimeter with swing, bubble, and tunnel screens. Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry are two of the better cover corners in the country, but they seemed to struggle with coming up and making tackles in the flat against Texas. Let it be known that it caused me physical pain to type out Kool-Aid in a serious manner. Another true freshman starting for the Tide, Caleb Downs is their leading tackler from the safety position. An elite run defender and hardnosed tackler, Downs has made an immediate impact; however, he has been known to get beat deep against good route runners. If McConkey or Lovett get matched up on Downs 1v1, watch out!

Regarding the interior defensive line, Bama is missing their game wrecker that we have seen in the past. In fact, the Tide do not have one IDL defender ranked in the top 100 according to PFF. UA is 33^rd in the country in rush yards allowed per game, and they gave up 244 on the ground against Auburn last week. Only 57 yards of that 244 total came from Auburn’s QB. I see Edwards and Milton having a big game on Saturday behind a proven and experienced Georgia Oline. Assuming Ratledge is ready to go, the Dawgs will have their entire offensive line back together for the first time in several weeks.

Prediction

For the first time out of the past several matchups between Georgia and Alabama, I believe that UGA has the advantage at quarterback. Carson Beck has shown tremendous growth as the season has gone on, and Mike Bobo has schemed perfectly to Beck’s strengths. This game hinges on the Dawgs’ ability to respond to adversity. We saw them do it against South Carolina, Auburn, and Missouri this year. Can UGA respond if they go down two touchdowns? Can they maintain composure if they go up two touchdowns? I believe the answer to both is yes. This Bulldog offense is arguably going to be the most well-rounded unit that Alabama has seen all year. Georgia’s defense has been porous at times, but they have always turned their nose up when it counts. I am expecting a lot of points. I am expecting for this game to be decided in the fourth quarter. My final prediction is 41-31 GEORGIA.