In Part One of this series we expressed our concern about the limited amounts of data that exist for a CFP selection committee who is tasked with comparing teams from different conferences who rarely face one another. To this point, the committee has relied on the precedent of using losses as the primary criteria for selecting playoff participants. Our analysis detailed the small number of games that are played between Power Five (P5) conferences during the regular season. In our opinion, the sa
This is Part One of a three-part series in which we analyze the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection process. In Part One, we address what we believe to be the CFP Selection Committee’s biggest challenge, which is a lack of data to compare teams in proper context. In Part Two, we identify data that we believe is instructive, and in Part Three, we propose an alternative framework to address the challenge.
Part One – The Data Problem
Being a member of the CFP selection committee i
Peach Bowl post-mortum
Before we dive into TCU, we wanted to offer a few thoughts on the Peach Bowl. First, credit to Ohio State for refusing to follow the script in our Peach Bowl preview. They played by far their most impressive game of the season. From play calling to execution, OSU maximized its chances of winning the game. Rather than struggle against a high caliber defense, C.J. Stroud elevated his performance to a level that, while possible, wasn’t the most probable statistical o
Peach Bowl Thoughts
While we will have more to discuss as the Peach Bowl draws closer, our initial take is rather consensus. Against inferior opponents, Ohio State tends to “out-athlete” the competition and accumulate impressive statistics, but when faced with ranked opponents, its overall production falls significantly. The severity of the splits is what is most revealing. Even if one assumes away the Michigan game, Ohio State is just a +1 NYPP team against ranked opponents, which is go
Week 12 Update
Due to the Holiday Week and cramming 5 days of work into 3, we were a bit delayed. We hope everyone had a relaxing Thanksgiving.
Overall, week 12 produced a lot of surprising result ranging from Tennessee’s implosion to Florida losing to Vanderbilt to Michigan needing a game winning FG to remain unbeaten to Ohio State struggling defensively against a Maryland team that had only scored 10 points in its previous two games. TCU’s battle with Baylor was somewhat more pre
CFP Focus Sharpens
After the Pac 12’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day, the path for a P5 non-champion has expanded considerably. As we noted last week, the seemingly difficult conflicts (i.e., Tennessee vs Oregon) usually seem to work themselves out. We remain highly confident (90+% confidence interval) that a one loss B12 champion TCU and one loss P12 champ USC would be in the CFP over any one loss P5 non-division winner (i.e., Tennessee, OSU-Michigan loser).
TCU's path i
Our goal is to convey the statistical picture that teams have painted for themselves to inform readers of their relative strength as the march to the CFP continues. The in season weekly rankings show is merely TV programming, as the rankings themselves have no bearing on the final rankings. Further, the committee often contradicts itself week-to-week to rationalize the current order before a TV audience and will have a different rationale for the final ranking. The reality is
Like many of you, I am confident in UGA’s chances this weekend for a number of reasons. That said, we all know there are a range of outcomes in sports. While I believe we have a high probability of winning, the scenarios where we don't are more common than most believe. Thus, we all need to be mindful that outcomes with only a 20%-33% happen regularly in sports. Let's all hope this isn't one of those times.
Before we get into this week’s Relative YPP Analysis, I want to introduce a new
If any of you are familiar with institutional investing, hedge fund managers exchange ideas all the time to challenge each other’s theses, sharpen their analysis, and sometimes raise their profile in the industry by making their research public. Whether it’s through one-on one phone calls, lively idea dinners, or the Super Bowl of hedge fund presentations known as the Ira Sohn Conference, the currency of credibility on Wall St is a great idea.
Like many in this community, I came acr